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Ilz vs Köflach — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Ilz
Ilz
FT
0 – 0
Köflach
Köflach
11/10/2023Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 15Pfeifer Real Arena Ilz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Ilz47%
×Draw23%
Köflach31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilz
1.84
Köflach
1.46

Ilz creates 26% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 60 away

creates per match

Ilz
1.91
Köflach
1.28

allows per match

Ilz
1.63
Köflach
1.77

finishing

Ilz+0.00on par
Köflach+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilz ↓

Köflach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ilz or draw
69%
Ilz or Köflach
77%
Draw or Köflach
53%

Winning margin

Ilz wins by 2+
25%
Köflach wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ilz 1+ goals
84%
Ilz 2+ goals
55%
Ilz 3+ goals
28%
Köflach 1+ goals
77%
Köflach 2+ goals
43%
Köflach 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ilz (draw refunded)
60%
Köflach (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilz at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.63 · 88 matches

Köflach away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilz attack 1.91 + Köflach defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.84

Köflach attack 1.28 + Ilz defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ilz scores more
47%
level
23%
Köflach scores more
31%

Ilz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ilz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Ilz 0–0 Köflach

Ilz and Köflach drew 0-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Pfeifer Real Arena Ilz in Ilz.