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Ilz vs Judenburg — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Ilz
Ilz
FT
2 – 0
Judenburg
Judenburg
4/18/2023Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 21Sportarena SV Ilz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ilz60%
×Draw20%
Judenburg20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilz
2.25
Judenburg
1.25

Ilz creates 80% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ilz
1.91
Judenburg
0.87

allows per match

Ilz
1.63
Judenburg
2.60

finishing

Ilz+0.00on par
Judenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilz ↓

Judenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Ilz or draw
80%
Ilz or Judenburg
80%
Draw or Judenburg
40%

Winning margin

Ilz wins by 2+
37%
Judenburg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ilz 1+ goals
89%
Ilz 2+ goals
65%
Ilz 3+ goals
39%
Judenburg 1+ goals
71%
Judenburg 2+ goals
36%
Judenburg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ilz (draw refunded)
74%
Judenburg (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilz at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.63 · 88 matches

Judenburg away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilz attack 1.91 + Judenburg defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.25

Judenburg attack 0.87 + Ilz defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ilz scores more
60%
level
20%
Judenburg scores more
20%

Ilz at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ilz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Ilz 2–0 Judenburg

Ilz beat Judenburg 2-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on April 18, 2023.

The match was played at Sportarena SV Ilz in Ilz.