Ilz 4–0 Hitthaller St. Michael: Result & Stats

Ilz

FT

4 – 0

Hitthaller St. Michael

10/9/2020

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 8Sportarena SV Ilz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ilz60%

×Draw19%

Hitthaller St. Michael21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IlzExpected goals in this matchHitthaller St. Michael

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.35

Ilz

2.40

Hitthaller St. Michael

1.35

Ilz creates 78% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 30 away

1.91

creates per match

1.07

1.63

allows per match

2.90

creates per match

Ilz

1.91

Hitthaller St. Michael

1.07

allows per match

Ilz

1.63

Hitthaller St. Michael

2.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ilz+0.00on par

Hitthaller St. Michael+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilz ↓

Hitthaller St. Michael →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Ilz or draw

79%

Ilz or Hitthaller St. Michael

81%

Draw or Hitthaller St. Michael

40%

Winning margin

Ilz wins by 2+

39%

Hitthaller St. Michael wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ilz 1+ goals

91%

Ilz 2+ goals

69%

Ilz 3+ goals

42%

Hitthaller St. Michael 1+ goals

74%

Hitthaller St. Michael 2+ goals

39%

Hitthaller St. Michael 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Ilz (draw refunded)

74%

Hitthaller St. Michael (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilz at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.63 · 88 matches

Hitthaller St. Michael away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilz attack 1.91 + Hitthaller St. Michael defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.40

Hitthaller St. Michael attack 1.07 + Ilz defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ilz scores more

60%

level

19%

Hitthaller St. Michael scores more

21%

Ilz at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ilz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff