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Ilz vs Frohnleiten — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Ilz
Ilz
FT
7 – 2
Frohnleiten
Frohnleiten
9/17/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 7Pfeifer Real Arena Ilz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ilz74%
×Draw14%
Frohnleiten11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilz
2.96
Frohnleiten
1.11

Ilz creates 167% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ilz
1.91
Frohnleiten
0.60

allows per match

Ilz
1.63
Frohnleiten
4.00

finishing

Ilz+0.00on par
Frohnleiten+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilz ↓

Frohnleiten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Ilz or draw
89%
Ilz or Frohnleiten
86%
Draw or Frohnleiten
26%

Winning margin

Ilz wins by 2+
54%
Frohnleiten wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ilz 1+ goals
95%
Ilz 2+ goals
79%
Ilz 3+ goals
55%
Frohnleiten 1+ goals
67%
Frohnleiten 2+ goals
30%
Frohnleiten 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ilz (draw refunded)
87%
Frohnleiten (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilz at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.63 · 88 matches

Frohnleiten away — creates 0.60, concedes 4.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilz attack 1.91 + Frohnleiten defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.96

Frohnleiten attack 0.60 + Ilz defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Ilz scores more
74%
level
14%
Frohnleiten scores more
11%

Ilz at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Ilz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Ilz 7–2 Frohnleiten

Ilz beat Frohnleiten 7-2 in Landesliga - Steiermark on September 17, 2024.

The match was played at Pfeifer Real Arena Ilz in Ilz.