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Ilves W vs KuPS W — Kansallinen Liiga 2020

Ilves W
Ilves W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
KuPS W
KuPS W
6/2/2023Kansallinen LiigaKansallinen Liiga · Round 8Kauppi 3 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Ilves W20%
×Draw20%
KuPS W60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilves W
1.24
KuPS W
2.24

KuPS W creates 81% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 72 away

creates per match

Ilves W
1.35
KuPS W
2.56

allows per match

Ilves W
1.92
KuPS W
1.13

finishing

Ilves W+0.00on par
KuPS W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves W ↓

KuPS W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Ilves W or draw
40%
Ilves W or KuPS W
80%
Draw or KuPS W
80%

Winning margin

Ilves W wins by 2+
8%
KuPS W wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Ilves W 1+ goals
71%
Ilves W 2+ goals
35%
Ilves W 3+ goals
13%
KuPS W 1+ goals
89%
KuPS W 2+ goals
65%
KuPS W 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Ilves W (draw refunded)
25%
KuPS W (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilves W at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.92 · 65 matches

KuPS W away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.13 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilves W attack 1.35 + KuPS W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.24

KuPS W attack 2.56 + Ilves W defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ilves W scores more
20%
level
20%
KuPS W scores more
60%

KuPS W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "KuPS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ilves W 0 – 2 KuPS W

KuPS W beat Ilves W 2-0 in Kansallinen Liiga on June 2, 2023.

The match was played at Kauppi 3 TN in Tampere.