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Ilves vs VPS — Veikkausliiga 2018

Ilves
Ilves
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
VPS
VPS
7/21/2024VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 16Tammelan Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Ilves52%
×Draw26%
VPS22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilves
1.54
VPS
0.91

Ilves creates 69% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ilves
1.87
VPS
0.68

allows per match

Ilves
1.14
VPS
1.21

finishing

Ilves+0.46scores more
VPS+0.32scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves ↓

VPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ilves or draw
78%
Ilves or VPS
74%
Draw or VPS
48%

Winning margin

Ilves wins by 2+
27%
VPS wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ilves 1+ goals
79%
Ilves 2+ goals
45%
Ilves 3+ goals
20%
VPS 1+ goals
60%
VPS 2+ goals
23%
VPS 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ilves (draw refunded)
70%
VPS (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilves at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.14 · 6 matches

VPS away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.21 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilves attack 1.87 + VPS defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.54

VPS attack 0.68 + Ilves defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ilves scores more
52%
level
26%
VPS scores more
22%

Ilves at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: Ilves 3–2 VPS

Ilves beat VPS 3-2 in Veikkausliiga on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at Tammelan Stadion in Tampere.