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Ilves vs VPS — Suomen Cup 2018

Ilves
Ilves
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
VPS
VPS
2/23/2019Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 1Pirkkahalli C

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ilves24%
×Draw19%
VPS58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilves
1.61
VPS
2.56

VPS creates 59% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

Ilves
2.13
VPS
4.00

allows per match

Ilves
1.13
VPS
1.10

finishing

Ilves+0.00on par
VPS+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves ↓

VPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Ilves or draw
42%
Ilves or VPS
81%
Draw or VPS
76%

Winning margin

Ilves wins by 2+
11%
VPS wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Ilves 1+ goals
80%
Ilves 2+ goals
48%
Ilves 3+ goals
22%
VPS 1+ goals
92%
VPS 2+ goals
72%
VPS 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Ilves (draw refunded)
29%
VPS (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilves at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

VPS away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilves attack 2.13 + VPS defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.61

VPS attack 4.00 + Ilves defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ilves scores more
24%
level
19%
VPS scores more
58%

VPS at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "VPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Ilves 3–0 VPS

Ilves beat VPS 3-0 in Suomen Cup on February 23, 2019.

The match was played at Pirkkahalli C in Tampere.