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Ilves vs PS Kemi Kings — Veikkausliiga 2018

Ilves
Ilves
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
PS Kemi Kings
PS Kemi Kings
10/20/2017VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 32Tammela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Ilves55%
×Draw24%
PS Kemi Kings21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilves
1.72
PS Kemi Kings
0.96

Ilves creates 79% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 21 away

creates per match

Ilves
1.63
PS Kemi Kings
0.76

allows per match

Ilves
1.17
PS Kemi Kings
1.81

finishing

Ilves+0.00on par
PS Kemi Kings+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves ↓

PS Kemi Kings →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ilves or draw
79%
Ilves or PS Kemi Kings
76%
Draw or PS Kemi Kings
45%

Winning margin

Ilves wins by 2+
31%
PS Kemi Kings wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ilves 1+ goals
82%
Ilves 2+ goals
51%
Ilves 3+ goals
25%
PS Kemi Kings 1+ goals
62%
PS Kemi Kings 2+ goals
25%
PS Kemi Kings 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ilves (draw refunded)
72%
PS Kemi Kings (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilves at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

PS Kemi Kings away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilves attack 1.63 + PS Kemi Kings defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.72

PS Kemi Kings attack 0.76 + Ilves defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ilves scores more
55%
level
24%
PS Kemi Kings scores more
21%

Ilves at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: Ilves 1–0 PS Kemi Kings

Ilves beat PS Kemi Kings 1-0 in Veikkausliiga on October 20, 2017.

The match was played at Tammela Stadium in Tampere.