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Ilves vs KPV Kokkola — Veikkausliiga 2018

Ilves
Ilves
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
KPV Kokkola
KPV Kokkola
6/25/2019VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 13Tammela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ilves50%
×Draw24%
KPV Kokkola26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilves
1.75
KPV Kokkola
1.19

Ilves creates 47% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ilves
1.63
KPV Kokkola
1.21

allows per match

Ilves
1.17
KPV Kokkola
1.86

finishing

Ilves+0.00on par
KPV Kokkola+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves ↓

KPV Kokkola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ilves or draw
74%
Ilves or KPV Kokkola
76%
Draw or KPV Kokkola
50%

Winning margin

Ilves wins by 2+
27%
KPV Kokkola wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ilves 1+ goals
83%
Ilves 2+ goals
52%
Ilves 3+ goals
25%
KPV Kokkola 1+ goals
70%
KPV Kokkola 2+ goals
33%
KPV Kokkola 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ilves (draw refunded)
66%
KPV Kokkola (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilves at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

KPV Kokkola away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilves attack 1.63 + KPV Kokkola defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.75

KPV Kokkola attack 1.21 + Ilves defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ilves scores more
50%
level
24%
KPV Kokkola scores more
26%

Ilves at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: Ilves 4–2 KPV Kokkola

Ilves beat KPV Kokkola 4-2 in Veikkausliiga on June 25, 2019.

The match was played at Tammela Stadium in Tampere.