Ilves 3–1 HIFK Helsinki: Result & Stats

Ilves

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

HIFK Helsinki

8/27/2019

Veikkausliiga · Round 11Tammelan Stadion (Tampere)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Ilves48%

×Draw25%

HIFK Helsinki27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IlvesExpected goals in this matchHIFK Helsinki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.13

Ilves

1.59

HIFK Helsinki

1.13

Ilves creates 41% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 52 away

1.63

creates per match

1.08

1.17

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Ilves

1.63

HIFK Helsinki

1.08

allows per match

Ilves

1.17

HIFK Helsinki

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ilves+0.00on par

HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves ↓

HIFK Helsinki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ilves or draw

73%

Ilves or HIFK Helsinki

75%

Draw or HIFK Helsinki

52%

Winning margin

Ilves wins by 2+

25%

HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ilves 1+ goals

80%

Ilves 2+ goals

47%

Ilves 3+ goals

21%

HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals

68%

HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals

31%

HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ilves (draw refunded)

64%

HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilves at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

HIFK Helsinki away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilves attack 1.63 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.59

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.08 + Ilves defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ilves scores more

48%

level

25%

HIFK Helsinki scores more

27%

Ilves at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff