HIFK Helsinki 0–3 Ilves: Result & Stats

HIFK Helsinki

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Ilves

P. Loa 77', 29'

T. Ollila 67' (pen)

10/31/2021

Veikkausliiga · Championship Round - 5Bolt Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

HIFK Helsinki30%

×Draw25%

Ilves45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HIFK HelsinkiExpected goals in this matchIlves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.60

HIFK Helsinki

1.25

Ilves

1.60

Ilves creates 28% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 118 away

1.08

creates per match

1.50

1.71

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

HIFK Helsinki

1.08

Ilves

1.50

allows per match

HIFK Helsinki

1.71

Ilves

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par

Ilves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HIFK Helsinki ↓

Ilves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

HIFK Helsinki or draw

55%

HIFK Helsinki or Ilves

75%

Draw or Ilves

70%

Winning margin

HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+

13%

Ilves wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals

71%

HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals

36%

HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals

13%

Ilves 1+ goals

80%

Ilves 2+ goals

47%

Ilves 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)

40%

Ilves (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HIFK Helsinki at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.71 · 51 matches

Ilves away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.41 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.08 + Ilves defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ilves attack 1.50 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

HIFK Helsinki scores more

30%

level

25%

Ilves scores more

45%

Ilves at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

P. Loa

61'

M. Ahadi← Pipe Sáez

62'

J. Halme← J. Dunwoody

62'

M. Rautiola← V. Gbe

63'

Jukka Halme

67'

Sakari Mattila

67'

T. OllilaPenalty

71'

Miska Rautiola

74'

A. Kujanpää← J. Ali

74'

T. Palmasto← S. Mattila

77'

P. Loa

78'

S. Nimely← P. Loa

78'

T. Özcelik← T. Jäntti

80'

J. Mabinda← M. Hing-Glover

83'

Moshtagh Yaghoubi

85'

N. Hasa← O. Jukkola

85'

L. Rönnberg← M. Sarr

Possession

Shots

Statistics

HIFKIlves

Overview

61%Possession39%

11Total Shots9

12Corners4

9Fouls19

Shots

11Total Shots9

3On Target5

8Off Target4

Passing

61%Possession39%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls19

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1