Ilves IV 4–1 Tervakosken Pato: Result & Stats

Ilves IV

4 – 1

Tervakosken Pato

3/25/2023

Suomen Cup · 1st RoundKauppi 3 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ilves IV54%

×Draw19%

Tervakosken Pato28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ilves IVExpected goals in this matchTervakosken Pato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.88

Ilves IV

2.63

Tervakosken Pato

1.88

Ilves IV creates 40% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

2.25

creates per match

1.25

2.50

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Ilves IV

2.25

Tervakosken Pato

1.25

allows per match

Ilves IV

2.50

Tervakosken Pato

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ilves IV+0.00on par

Tervakosken Pato+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves IV ↓

Tervakosken Pato →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Ilves IV or draw

72%

Ilves IV or Tervakosken Pato

81%

Draw or Tervakosken Pato

46%

Winning margin

Ilves IV wins by 2+

34%

Tervakosken Pato wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ilves IV 1+ goals

93%

Ilves IV 2+ goals

73%

Ilves IV 3+ goals

48%

Tervakosken Pato 1+ goals

85%

Tervakosken Pato 2+ goals

56%

Tervakosken Pato 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Ilves IV (draw refunded)

66%

Tervakosken Pato (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ilves IV at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Tervakosken Pato away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ilves IV attack 2.25 + Tervakosken Pato defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.63

Tervakosken Pato attack 1.25 + Ilves IV defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ilves IV scores more

54%

level

19%

Tervakosken Pato scores more

28%

Ilves IV at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ilves IV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff