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Ilves IV vs Härmä — Suomen Cup 2018

Ilves IV
Ilves IV
Pens
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Härmä
Härmä
4/1/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundMessukylän jalkapallokenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ilves IV12%
×Draw13%
Härmä75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilves IV
1.63
Härmä
3.88

Härmä creates 138% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ilves IV
2.25
Härmä
5.25

allows per match

Ilves IV
2.50
Härmä
1.00

finishing

Ilves IV+0.00on par
Härmä+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves IV ↓

Härmä →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–23%
0–34%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–37%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Ilves IV or draw
25%
Ilves IV or Härmä
87%
Draw or Härmä
88%

Winning margin

Ilves IV wins by 2+
5%
Härmä wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

Ilves IV 1+ goals
80%
Ilves IV 2+ goals
48%
Ilves IV 3+ goals
22%
Härmä 1+ goals
98%
Härmä 2+ goals
89%
Härmä 3+ goals
72%

Draw no bet

Ilves IV (draw refunded)
14%
Härmä (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilves IV at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Härmä away — creates 5.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilves IV attack 2.25 + Härmä defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Härmä attack 5.25 + Ilves IV defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Ilves IV scores more
12%
level
13%
Härmä scores more
75%

Härmä at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Härmä will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Ilves IV 3–3 Härmä

Ilves IV and Härmä drew 3-3 in Suomen Cup on April 1, 2025.

The match was played at Messukylän jalkapallokenttä in Tampere.