Ilves III 1–10 Inter Turku II: Result & Stats

Ilves III

1 – 10

HT: 1 – 4

Inter Turku II

E. Demir 31'

J. Kokkala 76', 48', 15', 11'

M. Bakkar 68', 45+1'

A. Tuominen 62', 35'

K. Palanen 57'

E. Oksanen 55'

4/18/2022

Suomen Cup · 3rd RoundKauppi 3 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ilves III8%

×Draw9%

Inter Turku II84%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ilves IIIExpected goals in this matchInter Turku II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

6.49

Ilves III

2.16

Inter Turku II

6.49

Inter Turku II creates 200% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.60

creates per match

6.57

6.40

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Ilves III

1.60

Inter Turku II

6.57

allows per match

Ilves III

6.40

Inter Turku II

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ilves III+0.00on par

Inter Turku II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over98
Under2

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes88
No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves III ↓

Inter Turku II →

0–00%

0–10%

0–21%

0–32%

0–42%

1–00%

1–10%

1–22%

1–33%

1–45%

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–34%

2–46%

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–33%

3–44%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–42%

Most likely 2–4 (6%) · grid covers 40% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

100%0%2.5

98%2%3.5

95%5%4.5

87%13%

Double chance

Ilves III or draw

16%

Ilves III or Inter Turku II

91%

Draw or Inter Turku II

92%

Winning margin

Ilves III wins by 2+

Inter Turku II wins by 2+

70%

Team goals

Ilves III 1+ goals

88%

Ilves III 2+ goals

63%

Ilves III 3+ goals

36%

Inter Turku II 1+ goals

100%

Inter Turku II 2+ goals

98%

Inter Turku II 3+ goals

92%

Draw no bet

Ilves III (draw refunded)

Inter Turku II (draw refunded)

92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

88%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ilves III at home — creates 1.60, concedes 6.40 · 5 matches

Inter Turku II away — creates 6.57, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ilves III attack 1.60 + Inter Turku II defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.16

Inter Turku II attack 6.57 + Ilves III defence 6.40 → ÷2 → 6.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 84%?"

Ilves III scores more

level

Inter Turku II scores more

84%

Inter Turku II at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Inter Turku II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

15'

31'

35'

45+1'

48'

55'

57'

62'

68'

76'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff