Ilves III 6–2 FC Kangasala: Result & Stats

Ilves III

6 – 2

FC Kangasala

3/27/2022

Suomen Cup · 2nd RoundKauppi tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ilves III8%

×Draw9%

FC Kangasala82%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ilves IIIExpected goals in this matchFC Kangasala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

6.20

Ilves III

2.17

FC Kangasala

6.20

FC Kangasala creates 186% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.60

creates per match

6.00

6.40

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Ilves III

1.60

FC Kangasala

6.00

allows per match

Ilves III

6.40

FC Kangasala

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ilves III+0.00on par

FC Kangasala+0.00on par

Total goals

Over98
Under2

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes88
No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves III ↓

FC Kangasala →

0–00%

0–10%

0–21%

0–32%

0–43%

1–00%

1–11%

1–22%

1–34%

1–45%

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–34%

2–46%

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–33%

3–44%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–42%

Most likely 2–4 (6%) · grid covers 42% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

100%0%2.5

98%2%3.5

94%6%4.5

86%14%

Double chance

Ilves III or draw

18%

Ilves III or FC Kangasala

91%

Draw or FC Kangasala

92%

Winning margin

Ilves III wins by 2+

FC Kangasala wins by 2+

68%

Team goals

Ilves III 1+ goals

89%

Ilves III 2+ goals

64%

Ilves III 3+ goals

36%

FC Kangasala 1+ goals

100%

FC Kangasala 2+ goals

97%

FC Kangasala 3+ goals

91%

Draw no bet

Ilves III (draw refunded)

FC Kangasala (draw refunded)

91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

88%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ilves III at home — creates 1.60, concedes 6.40 · 5 matches

FC Kangasala away — creates 6.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ilves III attack 1.60 + FC Kangasala defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.17

FC Kangasala attack 6.00 + Ilves III defence 6.40 → ÷2 → 6.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 82%?"

Ilves III scores more

level

FC Kangasala scores more

82%

FC Kangasala at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "FC Kangasala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff