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Ilves II vs Ilves — Suomen Cup 2018

Ilves II
Ilves II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ilves
Ilves
5/11/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundRatinan Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ilves II16%
×Draw19%
Ilves66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilves II
1.03
Ilves
2.30

Ilves creates 123% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ilves II
1.00
Ilves
2.28

allows per match

Ilves II
2.33
Ilves
1.06

finishing

Ilves II+0.00on par
Ilves+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves II ↓

Ilves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ilves II or draw
34%
Ilves II or Ilves
81%
Draw or Ilves
84%

Winning margin

Ilves II wins by 2+
5%
Ilves wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Ilves II 1+ goals
64%
Ilves II 2+ goals
28%
Ilves II 3+ goals
9%
Ilves 1+ goals
90%
Ilves 2+ goals
67%
Ilves 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Ilves II (draw refunded)
19%
Ilves (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilves II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Ilves away — creates 2.28, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilves II attack 1.00 + Ilves defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Ilves attack 2.28 + Ilves II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Ilves II scores more
16%
level
19%
Ilves scores more
66%

Ilves at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ilves II vs Ilves

Ilves II beat Ilves 2-1 in Suomen Cup on May 11, 2022.

The match was played at Ratinan Stadion in Tammerfors.