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Ilves II vs FC Espoo — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

Ilves II
Ilves II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Espoo
FC Espoo
5/5/2019Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 2Kaukajärvi Kenttä (Tampere)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ilves II48%
×Draw22%
FC Espoo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilves II
1.92
FC Espoo
1.48

Ilves II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 30 away

creates per match

Ilves II
2.10
FC Espoo
1.40

allows per match

Ilves II
1.56
FC Espoo
1.73

finishing

Ilves II+0.00on par
FC Espoo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves II ↓

FC Espoo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Ilves II or draw
70%
Ilves II or FC Espoo
78%
Draw or FC Espoo
52%

Winning margin

Ilves II wins by 2+
27%
FC Espoo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ilves II 1+ goals
85%
Ilves II 2+ goals
57%
Ilves II 3+ goals
30%
FC Espoo 1+ goals
77%
FC Espoo 2+ goals
43%
FC Espoo 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ilves II (draw refunded)
62%
FC Espoo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilves II at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.56 · 79 matches

FC Espoo away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilves II attack 2.10 + FC Espoo defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.92

FC Espoo attack 1.40 + Ilves II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ilves II scores more
48%
level
22%
FC Espoo scores more
30%

Ilves II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ilves II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko B: Ilves II 0–1 FC Espoo

FC Espoo beat Ilves II 1-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on May 5, 2019.

The match was played at Kaukajärvi Kenttä (Tampere).