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Ilvamaddalena vs USD Palmese — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Ilvamaddalena
Ilvamaddalena
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
USD Palmese
USD Palmese
9/28/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 4Stadio Salvatore Zichina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ilvamaddalena39%
×Draw28%
USD Palmese32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilvamaddalena
1.21
USD Palmese
1.07

Ilvamaddalena creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Ilvamaddalena
1.00
USD Palmese
1.15

allows per match

Ilvamaddalena
1.00
USD Palmese
1.41

finishing

Ilvamaddalena+0.00on par
USD Palmese+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilvamaddalena ↓

USD Palmese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ilvamaddalena or draw
68%
Ilvamaddalena or USD Palmese
72%
Draw or USD Palmese
61%

Winning margin

Ilvamaddalena wins by 2+
17%
USD Palmese wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ilvamaddalena 1+ goals
70%
Ilvamaddalena 2+ goals
34%
Ilvamaddalena 3+ goals
12%
USD Palmese 1+ goals
66%
USD Palmese 2+ goals
29%
USD Palmese 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ilvamaddalena (draw refunded)
55%
USD Palmese (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilvamaddalena at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 34 matches

USD Palmese away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilvamaddalena attack 1.00 + USD Palmese defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

USD Palmese attack 1.15 + Ilvamaddalena defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ilvamaddalena scores more
39%
level
28%
USD Palmese scores more
32%

Ilvamaddalena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ilvamaddalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Ilvamaddalena 1–1 USD Palmese

Ilvamaddalena and USD Palmese drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on September 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Salvatore Zichina in La Maddalena.