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Ilvamaddalena vs Olbia — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Ilvamaddalena
Ilvamaddalena
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Olbia
Olbia
1/5/2025Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 18Stadio Salvatore Zichina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ilvamaddalena40%
×Draw28%
Olbia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilvamaddalena
1.25
Olbia
1.10

Ilvamaddalena creates 14% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 35 away

creates per match

Ilvamaddalena
1.00
Olbia
1.20

allows per match

Ilvamaddalena
1.00
Olbia
1.49

finishing

Ilvamaddalena+0.00on par
Olbia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilvamaddalena ↓

Olbia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ilvamaddalena or draw
68%
Ilvamaddalena or Olbia
72%
Draw or Olbia
60%

Winning margin

Ilvamaddalena wins by 2+
17%
Olbia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ilvamaddalena 1+ goals
71%
Ilvamaddalena 2+ goals
36%
Ilvamaddalena 3+ goals
13%
Olbia 1+ goals
67%
Olbia 2+ goals
30%
Olbia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ilvamaddalena (draw refunded)
55%
Olbia (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilvamaddalena at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 34 matches

Olbia away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.49 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilvamaddalena attack 1.00 + Olbia defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.25

Olbia attack 1.20 + Ilvamaddalena defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ilvamaddalena scores more
40%
level
28%
Olbia scores more
32%

Ilvamaddalena at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ilvamaddalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ilvamaddalena vs Olbia

Ilvamaddalena beat Olbia 4-2 in Serie D - Girone G on January 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Salvatore Zichina in La Maddalena.