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Ilvamaddalena vs Nola 1925 — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Ilvamaddalena
Ilvamaddalena
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Nola 1925
Nola 1925
10/30/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 9Stadio Salvatore Zichina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ilvamaddalena42%
×Draw26%
Nola 192532%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilvamaddalena
1.42
Nola 1925
1.22

Ilvamaddalena creates 16% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ilvamaddalena
1.00
Nola 1925
1.44

allows per match

Ilvamaddalena
1.00
Nola 1925
1.83

finishing

Ilvamaddalena+0.00on par
Nola 1925+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilvamaddalena ↓

Nola 1925 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ilvamaddalena or draw
68%
Ilvamaddalena or Nola 1925
74%
Draw or Nola 1925
58%

Winning margin

Ilvamaddalena wins by 2+
20%
Nola 1925 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ilvamaddalena 1+ goals
76%
Ilvamaddalena 2+ goals
41%
Ilvamaddalena 3+ goals
17%
Nola 1925 1+ goals
70%
Nola 1925 2+ goals
34%
Nola 1925 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ilvamaddalena (draw refunded)
56%
Nola 1925 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilvamaddalena at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 34 matches

Nola 1925 away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilvamaddalena attack 1.00 + Nola 1925 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Nola 1925 attack 1.44 + Ilvamaddalena defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ilvamaddalena scores more
42%
level
26%
Nola 1925 scores more
32%

Ilvamaddalena at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ilvamaddalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Ilvamaddalena 3–2 Nola 1925

Ilvamaddalena beat Nola 1925 3-2 in Serie D - Girone G on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Salvatore Zichina in La Maddalena.