Ilvamaddalena 0–1 Atletico Uri: Result & Stats

Ilvamaddalena

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Uri

11/3/2024

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 10Stadio Salvatore Zichina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ilvamaddalena46%

×Draw28%

Atletico Uri26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IlvamaddalenaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Uri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.94

Ilvamaddalena

1.35

Atletico Uri

0.94

Ilvamaddalena creates 44% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

1.00

creates per match

0.87

1.00

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Ilvamaddalena

1.00

Atletico Uri

0.87

allows per match

Ilvamaddalena

1.00

Atletico Uri

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ilvamaddalena+0.00on par

Atletico Uri+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilvamaddalena ↓

Atletico Uri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ilvamaddalena or draw

74%

Ilvamaddalena or Atletico Uri

72%

Draw or Atletico Uri

54%

Winning margin

Ilvamaddalena wins by 2+

22%

Atletico Uri wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ilvamaddalena 1+ goals

74%

Ilvamaddalena 2+ goals

39%

Ilvamaddalena 3+ goals

15%

Atletico Uri 1+ goals

61%

Atletico Uri 2+ goals

24%

Atletico Uri 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ilvamaddalena (draw refunded)

64%

Atletico Uri (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilvamaddalena at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 34 matches

Atletico Uri away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilvamaddalena attack 1.00 + Atletico Uri defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Atletico Uri attack 0.87 + Ilvamaddalena defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ilvamaddalena scores more

46%

level

28%

Atletico Uri scores more

26%

Ilvamaddalena at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ilvamaddalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff