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Ilvamaddalena vs Atletico Lodigiani — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Ilvamaddalena
Ilvamaddalena
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atletico Lodigiani
Atletico Lodigiani
9/15/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 2Stadio Salvatore Zichina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ilvamaddalena41%
×Draw30%
Atletico Lodigiani29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilvamaddalena
1.18
Atletico Lodigiani
0.94

Ilvamaddalena creates 26% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Ilvamaddalena
1.00
Atletico Lodigiani
0.88

allows per match

Ilvamaddalena
1.00
Atletico Lodigiani
1.35

finishing

Ilvamaddalena+0.00on par
Atletico Lodigiani+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilvamaddalena ↓

Atletico Lodigiani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ilvamaddalena or draw
71%
Ilvamaddalena or Atletico Lodigiani
70%
Draw or Atletico Lodigiani
59%

Winning margin

Ilvamaddalena wins by 2+
18%
Atletico Lodigiani wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ilvamaddalena 1+ goals
69%
Ilvamaddalena 2+ goals
33%
Ilvamaddalena 3+ goals
12%
Atletico Lodigiani 1+ goals
61%
Atletico Lodigiani 2+ goals
24%
Atletico Lodigiani 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ilvamaddalena (draw refunded)
59%
Atletico Lodigiani (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilvamaddalena at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 34 matches

Atletico Lodigiani away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilvamaddalena attack 1.00 + Atletico Lodigiani defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Atletico Lodigiani attack 0.88 + Ilvamaddalena defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ilvamaddalena scores more
41%
level
30%
Atletico Lodigiani scores more
29%

Ilvamaddalena at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ilvamaddalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ilvamaddalena vs Atletico Lodigiani

Atletico Lodigiani beat Ilvamaddalena 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Salvatore Zichina in La Maddalena.