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Ilvamaddalena vs Angri Calcio — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Ilvamaddalena
Ilvamaddalena
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Angri Calcio
Angri Calcio
1/22/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 20Stadio Salvatore Zichina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ilvamaddalena39%
×Draw27%
Angri Calcio34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilvamaddalena
1.29
Angri Calcio
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ilvamaddalena
1.00
Angri Calcio
1.35

allows per match

Ilvamaddalena
1.00
Angri Calcio
1.59

finishing

Ilvamaddalena+0.00on par
Angri Calcio+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilvamaddalena ↓

Angri Calcio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ilvamaddalena or draw
66%
Ilvamaddalena or Angri Calcio
73%
Draw or Angri Calcio
61%

Winning margin

Ilvamaddalena wins by 2+
17%
Angri Calcio wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ilvamaddalena 1+ goals
72%
Ilvamaddalena 2+ goals
37%
Ilvamaddalena 3+ goals
14%
Angri Calcio 1+ goals
69%
Angri Calcio 2+ goals
33%
Angri Calcio 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ilvamaddalena (draw refunded)
54%
Angri Calcio (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilvamaddalena at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 34 matches

Angri Calcio away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilvamaddalena attack 1.00 + Angri Calcio defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Angri Calcio attack 1.35 + Ilvamaddalena defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ilvamaddalena scores more
39%
level
27%
Angri Calcio scores more
34%

Ilvamaddalena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ilvamaddalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Ilvamaddalena 1–1 Angri Calcio

Ilvamaddalena and Angri Calcio drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on January 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Salvatore Zichina in La Maddalena.