Ilshofen 0–1 Göppinger SV: Result & Stats

Ilshofen

FT

0 – 1

Göppinger SV

9/15/2021

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 8Sportplatz Ilshofen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Ilshofen34%

×Draw23%

Göppinger SV44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IlshofenExpected goals in this matchGöppinger SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.81

Ilshofen

1.57

Göppinger SV

1.81

Göppinger SV creates 15% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 76 away

1.68

creates per match

1.49

2.12

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Ilshofen

1.68

Göppinger SV

1.49

allows per match

Ilshofen

2.12

Göppinger SV

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ilshofen+0.00on par

Göppinger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilshofen ↓

Göppinger SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Ilshofen or draw

56%

Ilshofen or Göppinger SV

77%

Draw or Göppinger SV

66%

Winning margin

Ilshofen wins by 2+

16%

Göppinger SV wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Ilshofen 1+ goals

79%

Ilshofen 2+ goals

46%

Ilshofen 3+ goals

21%

Göppinger SV 1+ goals

84%

Göppinger SV 2+ goals

54%

Göppinger SV 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Ilshofen (draw refunded)

44%

Göppinger SV (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilshofen at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.12 · 25 matches

Göppinger SV away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.47 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilshofen attack 1.68 + Göppinger SV defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.57

Göppinger SV attack 1.49 + Ilshofen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ilshofen scores more

34%

level

23%

Göppinger SV scores more

44%

Göppinger SV at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Göppinger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff