Ilshofen 3–0 Astoria Walldorf II: Result & Stats

Ilshofen

FT

3 – 0

Astoria Walldorf II

9/5/2020

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 4Sportplatz Ilshofen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Ilshofen41%

×Draw22%

Astoria Walldorf II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IlshofenExpected goals in this matchAstoria Walldorf II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.74

Ilshofen

1.82

Astoria Walldorf II

1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

1.68

creates per match

1.36

2.12

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Ilshofen

1.68

Astoria Walldorf II

1.36

allows per match

Ilshofen

2.12

Astoria Walldorf II

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ilshofen+0.00on par

Astoria Walldorf II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilshofen ↓

Astoria Walldorf II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Ilshofen or draw

63%

Ilshofen or Astoria Walldorf II

78%

Draw or Astoria Walldorf II

59%

Winning margin

Ilshofen wins by 2+

21%

Astoria Walldorf II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Ilshofen 1+ goals

84%

Ilshofen 2+ goals

54%

Ilshofen 3+ goals

27%

Astoria Walldorf II 1+ goals

82%

Astoria Walldorf II 2+ goals

52%

Astoria Walldorf II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Ilshofen (draw refunded)

52%

Astoria Walldorf II (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilshofen at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.12 · 25 matches

Astoria Walldorf II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilshofen attack 1.68 + Astoria Walldorf II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.82

Astoria Walldorf II attack 1.36 + Ilshofen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ilshofen scores more

41%

level

22%

Astoria Walldorf II scores more

37%

Ilshofen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ilshofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff