Ilpar 0–3 Zenit Izhevsk: Result & Stats | Cup

Ilpar

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Zenit Izhevsk

7/28/2021

Cup · 2nd RoundStadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ilpar30%

×Draw22%

Zenit Izhevsk47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IlparExpected goals in this matchZenit Izhevsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.92

Ilpar

1.50

Zenit Izhevsk

1.92

Zenit Izhevsk creates 28% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

1.33

2.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Ilpar

1.00

Zenit Izhevsk

1.33

allows per match

Ilpar

2.50

Zenit Izhevsk

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ilpar+0.00on par

Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilpar ↓

Zenit Izhevsk →

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Ilpar or draw

53%

Ilpar or Zenit Izhevsk

78%

Draw or Zenit Izhevsk

70%

Winning margin

Ilpar wins by 2+

14%

Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Ilpar 1+ goals

78%

Ilpar 2+ goals

44%

Ilpar 3+ goals

19%

Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals

85%

Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals

57%

Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Ilpar (draw refunded)

39%

Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ilpar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Zenit Izhevsk away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ilpar attack 1.00 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Zenit Izhevsk attack 1.33 + Ilpar defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ilpar scores more

30%

level

22%

Zenit Izhevsk scores more

47%

Zenit Izhevsk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Zenit Izhevsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff