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Ilpar vs Torpedo Miass — Cup 2019

Ilpar
Ilpar
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Torpedo Miass
Torpedo Miass
8/2/2023CupCup · Regions Path - 1st RoundStadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ilpar23%
×Draw22%
Torpedo Miass55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilpar
1.20
Torpedo Miass
1.95

Torpedo Miass creates 63% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ilpar
1.00
Torpedo Miass
1.40

allows per match

Ilpar
2.50
Torpedo Miass
1.40

finishing

Ilpar+0.00on par
Torpedo Miass+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilpar ↓

Torpedo Miass →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ilpar or draw
45%
Ilpar or Torpedo Miass
78%
Draw or Torpedo Miass
77%

Winning margin

Ilpar wins by 2+
9%
Torpedo Miass wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Ilpar 1+ goals
70%
Ilpar 2+ goals
34%
Ilpar 3+ goals
12%
Torpedo Miass 1+ goals
86%
Torpedo Miass 2+ goals
58%
Torpedo Miass 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Ilpar (draw refunded)
30%
Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilpar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Torpedo Miass away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilpar attack 1.00 + Torpedo Miass defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Torpedo Miass attack 1.40 + Ilpar defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ilpar scores more
23%
level
22%
Torpedo Miass scores more
55%

Torpedo Miass at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Torpedo Miass will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ilpar vs Torpedo Miass

Torpedo Miass beat Ilpar 3-1 in Cup on August 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Zvezda in Perm'.