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Ilpar vs Nosta — Cup 2019

Ilpar
Ilpar
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Nosta
Nosta
8/6/2025CupCup · Regions Path - 1st RoundStadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ilpar34%
×Draw22%
Nosta44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilpar
1.60
Nosta
1.85

Nosta creates 16% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ilpar
1.00
Nosta
1.20

allows per match

Ilpar
2.50
Nosta
2.20

finishing

Ilpar+0.00on par
Nosta+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilpar ↓

Nosta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Ilpar or draw
56%
Ilpar or Nosta
78%
Draw or Nosta
66%

Winning margin

Ilpar wins by 2+
16%
Nosta wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Ilpar 1+ goals
80%
Ilpar 2+ goals
47%
Ilpar 3+ goals
22%
Nosta 1+ goals
84%
Nosta 2+ goals
55%
Nosta 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Ilpar (draw refunded)
43%
Nosta (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilpar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Nosta away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilpar attack 1.00 + Nosta defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Nosta attack 1.20 + Ilpar defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ilpar scores more
34%
level
22%
Nosta scores more
44%

Nosta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nosta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Ilpar 3–2 Nosta

Ilpar beat Nosta 3-2 in Cup on August 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Zvezda in Perm'.