Illueca 3–0 Valdefierro: Result & Stats

Illueca

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Valdefierro

12/20/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 10Estadio Papa Luna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Illueca59%

×Draw24%

Valdefierro17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IlluecaExpected goals in this matchValdefierro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.80

Illueca

1.71

Valdefierro

0.80

Illueca creates 114% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 31 away

1.25

creates per match

0.45

1.15

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Illueca

1.25

Valdefierro

0.45

allows per match

Illueca

1.15

Valdefierro

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Illueca+0.00on par

Valdefierro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Illueca ↓

Valdefierro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Illueca or draw

83%

Illueca or Valdefierro

76%

Draw or Valdefierro

41%

Winning margin

Illueca wins by 2+

33%

Valdefierro wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Illueca 1+ goals

82%

Illueca 2+ goals

51%

Illueca 3+ goals

24%

Valdefierro 1+ goals

55%

Valdefierro 2+ goals

19%

Valdefierro 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Illueca (draw refunded)

77%

Valdefierro (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Illueca at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.15 · 93 matches

Valdefierro away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Illueca attack 1.25 + Valdefierro defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.71

Valdefierro attack 0.45 + Illueca defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Illueca scores more

59%

level

24%

Valdefierro scores more

17%

Illueca at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Illueca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff