Illueca 2–1 Santa Anastasia: Result & Stats

Illueca

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Santa Anastasia

5/1/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 34Estadio Papa Luna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Illueca45%

×Draw27%

Santa Anastasia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IlluecaExpected goals in this matchSanta Anastasia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.04

Illueca

1.38

Santa Anastasia

1.04

Illueca creates 33% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 16 away

1.25

creates per match

0.94

1.15

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Illueca

1.25

Santa Anastasia

0.94

allows per match

Illueca

1.15

Santa Anastasia

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Illueca+0.00on par

Santa Anastasia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Illueca ↓

Santa Anastasia →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Illueca or draw

72%

Illueca or Santa Anastasia

73%

Draw or Santa Anastasia

55%

Winning margin

Illueca wins by 2+

21%

Santa Anastasia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Illueca 1+ goals

75%

Illueca 2+ goals

40%

Illueca 3+ goals

16%

Santa Anastasia 1+ goals

65%

Santa Anastasia 2+ goals

28%

Santa Anastasia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Illueca (draw refunded)

61%

Santa Anastasia (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Illueca at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.15 · 93 matches

Santa Anastasia away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Illueca attack 1.25 + Santa Anastasia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Santa Anastasia attack 0.94 + Illueca defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Illueca scores more

45%

level

27%

Santa Anastasia scores more

28%

Illueca at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Illueca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff