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Illueca vs San Juan Mozarrifar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Illueca
Illueca
FT
3 – 0
San Juan Mozarrifar
San Juan Mozarrifar
12/27/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 3Estadio Papa Luna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Illueca58%
×Draw24%
San Juan Mozarrifar18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Illueca
1.67
San Juan Mozarrifar
0.80

Illueca creates 109% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 24 away

creates per match

Illueca
1.25
San Juan Mozarrifar
0.46

allows per match

Illueca
1.15
San Juan Mozarrifar
2.08

finishing

Illueca+0.00on par
San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Illueca ↓

San Juan Mozarrifar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Illueca or draw
82%
Illueca or San Juan Mozarrifar
76%
Draw or San Juan Mozarrifar
42%

Winning margin

Illueca wins by 2+
32%
San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Illueca 1+ goals
81%
Illueca 2+ goals
50%
Illueca 3+ goals
23%
San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals
55%
San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals
19%
San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Illueca (draw refunded)
77%
San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Illueca at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.15 · 93 matches

San Juan Mozarrifar away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Illueca attack 1.25 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.67

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.46 + Illueca defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Illueca scores more
58%
level
24%
San Juan Mozarrifar scores more
18%

Illueca at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Illueca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Illueca 3 – 0 San Juan Mozarrifar

Illueca beat San Juan Mozarrifar 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on December 27, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Papa Luna in Illueca.