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Illueca vs Huesca II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Illueca
Illueca
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Huesca II
Huesca II
1/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 18Estadio Papa Luna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Illueca36%
×Draw27%
Huesca II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Illueca
1.21
Huesca II
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 80 away

creates per match

Illueca
1.25
Huesca II
1.32

allows per match

Illueca
1.15
Huesca II
1.16

finishing

Illueca+0.00on par
Huesca II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Illueca ↓

Huesca II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Illueca or draw
63%
Illueca or Huesca II
73%
Draw or Huesca II
64%

Winning margin

Illueca wins by 2+
15%
Huesca II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Illueca 1+ goals
70%
Illueca 2+ goals
34%
Illueca 3+ goals
12%
Huesca II 1+ goals
71%
Huesca II 2+ goals
35%
Huesca II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Illueca (draw refunded)
49%
Huesca II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Illueca at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.15 · 93 matches

Huesca II away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Illueca attack 1.25 + Huesca II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Huesca II attack 1.32 + Illueca defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Illueca scores more
36%
level
27%
Huesca II scores more
37%

Huesca II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Huesca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Illueca vs Huesca II

Huesca II beat Illueca 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Papa Luna in Illueca.