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Illueca vs Fraga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Illueca
Illueca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fraga
Fraga
2/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 13Estadio Papa Luna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Illueca43%
×Draw27%
Fraga30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Illueca
1.37
Fraga
1.10

Illueca creates 25% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 65 away

creates per match

Illueca
1.25
Fraga
1.06

allows per match

Illueca
1.15
Fraga
1.49

finishing

Illueca+0.00on par
Fraga+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Illueca ↓

Fraga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Illueca or draw
70%
Illueca or Fraga
73%
Draw or Fraga
57%

Winning margin

Illueca wins by 2+
20%
Fraga wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Illueca 1+ goals
75%
Illueca 2+ goals
40%
Illueca 3+ goals
16%
Fraga 1+ goals
67%
Fraga 2+ goals
30%
Fraga 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Illueca (draw refunded)
59%
Fraga (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Illueca at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.15 · 93 matches

Fraga away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Illueca attack 1.25 + Fraga defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.37

Fraga attack 1.06 + Illueca defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Illueca scores more
43%
level
27%
Fraga scores more
30%

Illueca at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Illueca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Illueca 1 – 0 Fraga

Illueca beat Fraga 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on February 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Papa Luna in Illueca.