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Illueca vs CDJ Tamarite — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Illueca
Illueca
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
CDJ Tamarite
CDJ Tamarite
1/11/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 17Estadio Papa Luna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Illueca47%
×Draw26%
CDJ Tamarite27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Illueca
1.53
CDJ Tamarite
1.10

Illueca creates 39% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 98 away

creates per match

Illueca
1.25
CDJ Tamarite
1.05

allows per match

Illueca
1.15
CDJ Tamarite
1.81

finishing

Illueca+0.00on par
CDJ Tamarite+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Illueca ↓

CDJ Tamarite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Illueca or draw
73%
Illueca or CDJ Tamarite
74%
Draw or CDJ Tamarite
53%

Winning margin

Illueca wins by 2+
24%
CDJ Tamarite wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Illueca 1+ goals
78%
Illueca 2+ goals
45%
Illueca 3+ goals
20%
CDJ Tamarite 1+ goals
67%
CDJ Tamarite 2+ goals
30%
CDJ Tamarite 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Illueca (draw refunded)
63%
CDJ Tamarite (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Illueca at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.15 · 93 matches

CDJ Tamarite away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Illueca attack 1.25 + CDJ Tamarite defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.53

CDJ Tamarite attack 1.05 + Illueca defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Illueca scores more
47%
level
26%
CDJ Tamarite scores more
27%

Illueca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Illueca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Illueca 1–3 CDJ Tamarite

CDJ Tamarite beat Illueca 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on January 11, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Papa Luna in Illueca.