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Illueca vs Calamocha — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Illueca
Illueca
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Calamocha
Calamocha
12/6/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 13Estadio Papa Luna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Illueca38%
×Draw29%
Calamocha34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Illueca
1.16
Calamocha
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 110 away

creates per match

Illueca
1.25
Calamocha
1.01

allows per match

Illueca
1.15
Calamocha
1.07

finishing

Illueca+0.00on par
Calamocha+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Illueca ↓

Calamocha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Illueca or draw
66%
Illueca or Calamocha
71%
Draw or Calamocha
62%

Winning margin

Illueca wins by 2+
16%
Calamocha wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Illueca 1+ goals
69%
Illueca 2+ goals
32%
Illueca 3+ goals
11%
Calamocha 1+ goals
66%
Calamocha 2+ goals
29%
Calamocha 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Illueca (draw refunded)
53%
Calamocha (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Illueca at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.15 · 93 matches

Calamocha away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Illueca attack 1.25 + Calamocha defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Calamocha attack 1.01 + Illueca defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Illueca scores more
38%
level
29%
Calamocha scores more
34%

Illueca at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Illueca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Illueca 2–4 Calamocha

Calamocha beat Illueca 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on December 6, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Papa Luna in Illueca.