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Illueca vs Brea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Illueca
Illueca
CANC
16:00
Brea
Brea
5/3/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 40Estadio Papa Luna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Illueca38%
×Draw29%
Brea33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Illueca
1.14
Brea
1.03

Illueca creates 11% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 46 away

creates per match

Illueca
1.25
Brea
0.91

allows per match

Illueca
1.15
Brea
1.02

finishing

Illueca+0.00on par
Brea+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Illueca ↓

Brea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Illueca or draw
67%
Illueca or Brea
71%
Draw or Brea
62%

Winning margin

Illueca wins by 2+
16%
Brea wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Illueca 1+ goals
68%
Illueca 2+ goals
32%
Illueca 3+ goals
11%
Brea 1+ goals
64%
Brea 2+ goals
28%
Brea 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Illueca (draw refunded)
54%
Brea (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Illueca at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.15 · 93 matches

Brea away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Illueca attack 1.25 + Brea defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

Brea attack 0.91 + Illueca defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Illueca scores more
38%
level
29%
Brea scores more
33%

Illueca at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Illueca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Illueca vs Brea — Match Preview

Illueca face Brea on May 3, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Illueca host Brea at Estadio Papa Luna.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.