Illueca 1–2 Belchite 97: Result & Stats

Illueca

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Belchite 97

3/24/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 26Estadio Papa Luna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Illueca41%

×Draw29%

Belchite 9731%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IlluecaExpected goals in this matchBelchite 97

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.01

Illueca

1.21

Belchite 97

1.01

Illueca creates 20% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 95 away

1.25

creates per match

0.87

1.15

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Illueca

1.25

Belchite 97

0.87

allows per match

Illueca

1.15

Belchite 97

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Illueca+0.00on par

Belchite 97+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Illueca ↓

Belchite 97 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Illueca or draw

69%

Illueca or Belchite 97

71%

Draw or Belchite 97

59%

Winning margin

Illueca wins by 2+

18%

Belchite 97 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Illueca 1+ goals

70%

Illueca 2+ goals

34%

Illueca 3+ goals

12%

Belchite 97 1+ goals

64%

Belchite 97 2+ goals

27%

Belchite 97 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Illueca (draw refunded)

57%

Belchite 97 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Illueca at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.15 · 93 matches

Belchite 97 away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.18 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Illueca attack 1.25 + Belchite 97 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Belchite 97 attack 0.87 + Illueca defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Illueca scores more

41%

level

29%

Belchite 97 scores more

31%

Illueca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Illueca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff