Illueca 0–0 Atlético Monzón: Result & Stats

Illueca

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Monzón

9/30/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 4Estadio Papa Luna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Illueca36%

×Draw28%

Atlético Monzón36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IlluecaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Monzón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

Illueca

1.19

Atlético Monzón

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 115 away

1.25

creates per match

1.22

1.15

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Illueca

1.25

Atlético Monzón

1.22

allows per match

Illueca

1.15

Atlético Monzón

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Illueca+0.00on par

Atlético Monzón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Illueca ↓

Atlético Monzón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Illueca or draw

64%

Illueca or Atlético Monzón

72%

Draw or Atlético Monzón

64%

Winning margin

Illueca wins by 2+

15%

Atlético Monzón wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Illueca 1+ goals

70%

Illueca 2+ goals

33%

Illueca 3+ goals

12%

Atlético Monzón 1+ goals

70%

Atlético Monzón 2+ goals

33%

Atlético Monzón 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Illueca (draw refunded)

50%

Atlético Monzón (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Illueca at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.15 · 93 matches

Atlético Monzón away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.13 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Illueca attack 1.25 + Atlético Monzón defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Atlético Monzón attack 1.22 + Illueca defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Illueca scores more

36%

level

28%

Atlético Monzón scores more

36%

Illueca at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Illueca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff