Illovo 1–2 Royal Leopards: Result & Stats

Illovo

FT

1 – 2

Royal Leopards

3/1/2025

Premier League · Round 13Mayaluka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Illovo27%

×Draw27%

Royal Leopards46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IllovoExpected goals in this matchRoyal Leopards

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.40

Illovo

1.00

Royal Leopards

1.40

Royal Leopards creates 40% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 85 away

1.04

creates per match

1.88

0.92

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Illovo

1.04

Royal Leopards

1.88

allows per match

Illovo

0.92

Royal Leopards

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Illovo+0.00on par

Royal Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Illovo ↓

Royal Leopards →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Illovo or draw

54%

Illovo or Royal Leopards

73%

Draw or Royal Leopards

73%

Winning margin

Illovo wins by 2+

10%

Royal Leopards wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Illovo 1+ goals

63%

Illovo 2+ goals

26%

Illovo 3+ goals

8%

Royal Leopards 1+ goals

75%

Royal Leopards 2+ goals

41%

Royal Leopards 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Illovo (draw refunded)

37%

Royal Leopards (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Illovo at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

Royal Leopards away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.96 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Illovo attack 1.04 + Royal Leopards defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.00

Royal Leopards attack 1.88 + Illovo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Illovo scores more

27%

level

27%

Royal Leopards scores more

46%

Royal Leopards at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Royal Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff