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Illovo vs Mbabane Swallows — Premier League 2020

Illovo
Illovo
FT
2 – 1
Mbabane Swallows
Mbabane Swallows
5/24/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Mayaluka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Illovo29%
×Draw30%
Mbabane Swallows41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Illovo
0.93
Mbabane Swallows
1.15

Mbabane Swallows creates 24% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 83 away

creates per match

Illovo
1.04
Mbabane Swallows
1.37

allows per match

Illovo
0.92
Mbabane Swallows
0.81

finishing

Illovo+0.00on par
Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Illovo ↓

Mbabane Swallows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Illovo or draw
59%
Illovo or Mbabane Swallows
70%
Draw or Mbabane Swallows
71%

Winning margin

Illovo wins by 2+
10%
Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Illovo 1+ goals
61%
Illovo 2+ goals
24%
Illovo 3+ goals
7%
Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals
68%
Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals
32%
Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Illovo (draw refunded)
42%
Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Illovo at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

Mbabane Swallows away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.81 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Illovo attack 1.04 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.93

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.37 + Illovo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Illovo scores more
29%
level
30%
Mbabane Swallows scores more
41%

Mbabane Swallows at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mbabane Swallows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Illovo 2–1 Mbabane Swallows

Illovo beat Mbabane Swallows 2-1 in Premier League on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Mayaluka Stadium in Mayaluka.