Illovo 1–1 Highlanders: Result & Stats

Illovo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Highlanders

11/23/2024

Premier League · Round 6Mayaluka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Illovo32%

×Draw30%

Highlanders38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IllovoExpected goals in this matchHighlanders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.10

Illovo

0.98

Highlanders

1.10

Highlanders creates 12% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 83 away

1.04

creates per match

1.29

0.92

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Illovo

1.04

Highlanders

1.29

allows per match

Illovo

0.92

Highlanders

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Illovo+0.00on par

Highlanders+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Illovo ↓

Highlanders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Illovo or draw

62%

Illovo or Highlanders

70%

Draw or Highlanders

68%

Winning margin

Illovo wins by 2+

12%

Highlanders wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Illovo 1+ goals

62%

Illovo 2+ goals

26%

Illovo 3+ goals

8%

Highlanders 1+ goals

67%

Highlanders 2+ goals

30%

Highlanders 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Illovo (draw refunded)

46%

Highlanders (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Illovo at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

Highlanders away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.92 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Illovo attack 1.04 + Highlanders defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.98

Highlanders attack 1.29 + Illovo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Illovo scores more

32%

level

30%

Highlanders scores more

38%

Highlanders at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Highlanders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff