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Illescas vs Toledo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Illescas
Illescas
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Toledo
Toledo
4/23/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 30Estadio Municipal de Illescas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Illescas40%
×Draw32%
Toledo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Illescas
1.03
Toledo
0.79

Illescas creates 30% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 95 away

creates per match

Illescas
1.22
Toledo
1.01

allows per match

Illescas
0.57
Toledo
0.84

finishing

Illescas+0.00on par
Toledo+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Illescas ↓

Toledo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Illescas or draw
73%
Illescas or Toledo
68%
Draw or Toledo
60%

Winning margin

Illescas wins by 2+
16%
Toledo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Illescas 1+ goals
64%
Illescas 2+ goals
28%
Illescas 3+ goals
9%
Toledo 1+ goals
55%
Toledo 2+ goals
19%
Toledo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Illescas (draw refunded)
60%
Toledo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Illescas at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.57 · 77 matches

Toledo away — creates 1.01, concedes 0.84 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Illescas attack 1.22 + Toledo defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.03

Toledo attack 1.01 + Illescas defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Illescas scores more
40%
level
32%
Toledo scores more
27%

Illescas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Illescas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Illescas 5–1 Toledo

Illescas beat Toledo 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Illescas in Illescas.