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Illescas vs Hogar Alcarreño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Illescas
Illescas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hogar Alcarreño
Hogar Alcarreño
4/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 34Estadio Municipal de Illescas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Illescas76%
×Draw16%
Hogar Alcarreño8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Illescas
2.35
Hogar Alcarreño
0.61

Illescas creates 285% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 17 away

creates per match

Illescas
1.22
Hogar Alcarreño
0.65

allows per match

Illescas
0.57
Hogar Alcarreño
3.47

finishing

Illescas+0.00on par
Hogar Alcarreño+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Illescas ↓

Hogar Alcarreño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Illescas or draw
92%
Illescas or Hogar Alcarreño
84%
Draw or Hogar Alcarreño
24%

Winning margin

Illescas wins by 2+
53%
Hogar Alcarreño wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Illescas 1+ goals
90%
Illescas 2+ goals
68%
Illescas 3+ goals
41%
Hogar Alcarreño 1+ goals
46%
Hogar Alcarreño 2+ goals
13%
Hogar Alcarreño 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Illescas (draw refunded)
91%
Hogar Alcarreño (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Illescas at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.57 · 77 matches

Hogar Alcarreño away — creates 0.65, concedes 3.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Illescas attack 1.22 + Hogar Alcarreño defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.35

Hogar Alcarreño attack 0.65 + Illescas defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Illescas scores more
76%
level
16%
Hogar Alcarreño scores more
8%

Illescas at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Illescas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Illescas 2–0 Hogar Alcarreño

Illescas beat Hogar Alcarreño 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Illescas in Illescas.