Illertissen 3–1 Garching: Result & Stats

Illertissen

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Garching

10/26/2019

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 17Vöhlin-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Illertissen58%

×Draw20%

Garching22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IllertissenExpected goals in this matchGarching

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.33

Illertissen

2.28

Garching

1.33

Illertissen creates 71% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 12 away

1.73

creates per match

1.33

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Illertissen

1.73

Garching

1.33

allows per match

Illertissen

1.33

Garching

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Illertissen+0.00on par

Garching+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Illertissen ↓

Garching →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Illertissen or draw

78%

Illertissen or Garching

80%

Draw or Garching

42%

Winning margin

Illertissen wins by 2+

37%

Garching wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Illertissen 1+ goals

90%

Illertissen 2+ goals

66%

Illertissen 3+ goals

39%

Garching 1+ goals

74%

Garching 2+ goals

38%

Garching 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Illertissen (draw refunded)

73%

Garching (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Illertissen at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.33 · 98 matches

Garching away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Illertissen attack 1.73 + Garching defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.28

Garching attack 1.33 + Illertissen defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Illertissen scores more

58%

level

20%

Garching scores more

22%

Illertissen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Illertissen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff