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CA Bastia vs Stade Brestois 29 — Ligue 2 2010

CA Bastia
CA Bastia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29
A. Alphonse 63'
2/24/2014Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 25Stade Armand Césari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CA Bastia28%
×Draw28%
Stade Brestois 2944%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Bastia
0.98
Stade Brestois 29
1.32

Stade Brestois 29 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 106 away

creates per match

CA Bastia
0.79
Stade Brestois 29
1.11

allows per match

CA Bastia
1.53
Stade Brestois 29
1.17

finishing

CA Bastia+0.00on par
Stade Brestois 29+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 60Over: 4060%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Bastia ↓

Stade Brestois 29 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CA Bastia or draw
56%
CA Bastia or Stade Brestois 29
72%
Draw or Stade Brestois 29
72%

Winning margin

CA Bastia wins by 2+
10%
Stade Brestois 29 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

CA Bastia 1+ goals
62%
CA Bastia 2+ goals
26%
CA Bastia 3+ goals
8%
Stade Brestois 29 1+ goals
73%
Stade Brestois 29 2+ goals
38%
Stade Brestois 29 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

CA Bastia (draw refunded)
38%
Stade Brestois 29 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Bastia at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Stade Brestois 29 away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.17 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Bastia attack 0.79 + Stade Brestois 29 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.98

Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.11 + CA Bastia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CA Bastia scores more
28%
level
28%
Stade Brestois 29 scores more
44%

Stade Brestois 29 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stade Brestois 29 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'
A. Alphonse

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CA Bastia vs Stade Brestois 29

Stade Brestois 29 beat CA Bastia 1-0 in Ligue 2 on February 24, 2014.

Goals: A. Alphonse (63').

The match was played at Stade Armand Césari in Furiani.