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Olímpia BA vs Atlanta — Baiano - 2 2019

Olímpia BA
Olímpia BA
FT
1 – 1
Atlanta
Atlanta
4/7/2019Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 5Estádio Governador Roberto Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Olímpia BA43%
×Draw24%
Atlanta33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olímpia BA
1.67
Atlanta
1.42

Olímpia BA creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Olímpia BA
2.17
Atlanta
1.83

allows per match

Olímpia BA
1.00
Atlanta
1.17

finishing

Olímpia BA+0.00on par
Atlanta+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpia BA ↓

Atlanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Olímpia BA or draw
67%
Olímpia BA or Atlanta
76%
Draw or Atlanta
57%

Winning margin

Olímpia BA wins by 2+
22%
Atlanta wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Olímpia BA 1+ goals
81%
Olímpia BA 2+ goals
50%
Olímpia BA 3+ goals
23%
Atlanta 1+ goals
76%
Atlanta 2+ goals
41%
Atlanta 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Olímpia BA (draw refunded)
57%
Atlanta (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olímpia BA at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Atlanta away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olímpia BA attack 2.17 + Atlanta defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.67

Atlanta attack 1.83 + Olímpia BA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olímpia BA scores more
43%
level
24%
Atlanta scores more
33%

Olímpia BA at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olímpia BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olímpia BA vs Atlanta

Olímpia BA and Atlanta drew 1-1 in Baiano - 2 on April 7, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos in Salvador de Bahia, Bahia.