Ilirija 1–4 Rogaška: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Ilirija

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Rogaška

T. Mlakar 7'

S. Andjelić 87'

A. Ploj 65'

H. Muzaferović 58'

A. Krajnc 19'

9/11/2021

2. SNL · Round 7Športni park Ilirija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Ilirija40%

×Draw25%

Rogaška35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IlirijaExpected goals in this matchRogaška

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.38

Ilirija

1.48

Rogaška

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 41 away

1.32

creates per match

1.32

1.43

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Ilirija

1.32

Rogaška

1.32

allows per match

Ilirija

1.43

Rogaška

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ilirija+0.00on par

Rogaška+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilirija ↓

Rogaška →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ilirija or draw

65%

Ilirija or Rogaška

75%

Draw or Rogaška

60%

Winning margin

Ilirija wins by 2+

19%

Rogaška wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ilirija 1+ goals

77%

Ilirija 2+ goals

43%

Ilirija 3+ goals

19%

Rogaška 1+ goals

75%

Rogaška 2+ goals

40%

Rogaška 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Ilirija (draw refunded)

53%

Rogaška (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilirija at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

Rogaška away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.63 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilirija attack 1.32 + Rogaška defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Rogaška attack 1.32 + Ilirija defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ilirija scores more

40%

level

25%

Rogaška scores more

35%

Ilirija at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ilirija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

T. Mlakar

19'

A. Krajnc

26'

F. Farquharson

46'

M. Rokavec← J. Majcen

55'

D. Gutić← T. Kepic

58'

H. Muzaferović

65'

A. Ploj

66'

M. Đajič← A. Jašaragič

66'

S. Kuzmic← N. Beguš

66'

A. Causevic← D. Djermanovič

67'

A. Neskič← H. Muzaferović

70'

T. Golob← J. Kodelič

72'

M. Golob← T. Mlakar

87'

S. Andjelić

Ilirija

Rogaška

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Balutto

55'▲D. Gutić←▼T. Kepic

66'▲M. Đajič←▼A. Jašaragič

66'▲S. Kuzmic←▼N. Beguš

66'▲A. Causevic←▼D. Djermanovič

72'▲M. Golob←▼T. Mlakar

Ilirija substitutes

GutićĐajičKuzmicCausevicGolobKustrinPavli

Manager: F. Fridl

46'▲M. Rokavec←▼J. Majcen

67'▲A. Neskič←▼H. Muzaferović

70'▲T. Golob←▼J. Kodelič

Rogaška substitutes

RokavecNeskičGolobVunderlLamprehtGobecSedej