Ilirija 3–1 Fužinar: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Ilirija

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fužinar

R. Biggs 78', 57'

Ž. Korošec 47'

K. Irmančnik 53'

4/13/2024

2. SNL · Round 25Športni park Ilirija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Ilirija42%

×Draw24%

Fužinar34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IlirijaExpected goals in this matchFužinar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.40

Ilirija

1.58

Fužinar

1.40

Ilirija creates 13% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 64 away

1.32

creates per match

1.36

1.43

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Ilirija

1.32

Fužinar

1.36

allows per match

Ilirija

1.43

Fužinar

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ilirija+0.00on par

Fužinar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilirija ↓

Fužinar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ilirija or draw

66%

Ilirija or Fužinar

76%

Draw or Fužinar

58%

Winning margin

Ilirija wins by 2+

21%

Fužinar wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ilirija 1+ goals

79%

Ilirija 2+ goals

47%

Ilirija 3+ goals

21%

Fužinar 1+ goals

75%

Fužinar 2+ goals

41%

Fužinar 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ilirija (draw refunded)

55%

Fužinar (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilirija at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

Fužinar away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.83 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilirija attack 1.32 + Fužinar defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Fužinar attack 1.36 + Ilirija defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ilirija scores more

42%

level

24%

Fužinar scores more

34%

Ilirija at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ilirija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

Ž. Korošec← M. Fink

47'

Ž. Korošec

50'

C. Cener← M. Turičnik

53'

K. Irmančnik

57'

R. Biggs

61'

D. Vukolić← J. Gabrovec

61'

P. Seck← M. Hovnik

70'

T. Štricelj← D. Maksimović

78'

R. Biggs

83'

K. Ofič← P. Čuić

83'

N. Mrkonjić← L. Verbič

87'

N. Lepoša← F. Bustos

Ilirija

Fužinar

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: M. Kondić

44'▲Ž. Korošec←▼M. Fink

70'▲T. Štricelj←▼D. Maksimović

87'▲N. Lepoša←▼F. Bustos

Ilirija substitutes

KorošecŠtriceljLepošaDagarinStojinovićŽerjal

Manager: M. Bukovec

50'▲C. Cener←▼M. Turičnik

61'▲D. Vukolić←▼J. Gabrovec

61'▲P. Seck←▼M. Hovnik

83'▲K. Ofič←▼P. Čuić

83'▲N. Mrkonjić←▼L. Verbič

Fužinar substitutes

CenerVukolićSeckOfičMrkonjićRotovnikLakovšekJeromel

2. SNL: Ilirija 3–1 Fužinar

Ilirija beat Fužinar 3-1 in 2. SNL on April 13, 2024.

Goals: Ž. Korošec (47'), K. Irmančnik (53'), R. Biggs (57', 78').

The match was played at Športni park Ilirija in Ljubljana.

Ilirija vs Fužinar — 2. SNL 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. SNL: Ilirija 3–1 Fužinar