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Ilirija vs Brinje-Grosuplje — 2. SNL 2019

Ilirija
Ilirija
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Brinje-Grosuplje
Brinje-Grosuplje
N. Zrnec 78'
V. Skrbin 48'
N. Jovicevic 11'
8/16/20252. SNL2. SNL · Round 2Športni park Ilirija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Ilirija30%
×Draw25%
Brinje-Grosuplje45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilirija
1.27
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.61

Brinje-Grosuplje creates 27% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 60 away

creates per match

Ilirija
1.32
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.80

allows per match

Ilirija
1.43
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.22

finishing

Ilirija+0.00on par
Brinje-Grosuplje+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilirija ↓

Brinje-Grosuplje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ilirija or draw
55%
Ilirija or Brinje-Grosuplje
75%
Draw or Brinje-Grosuplje
70%

Winning margin

Ilirija wins by 2+
13%
Brinje-Grosuplje wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Ilirija 1+ goals
72%
Ilirija 2+ goals
36%
Ilirija 3+ goals
14%
Brinje-Grosuplje 1+ goals
80%
Brinje-Grosuplje 2+ goals
48%
Brinje-Grosuplje 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Ilirija (draw refunded)
40%
Brinje-Grosuplje (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilirija at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

Brinje-Grosuplje away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilirija attack 1.32 + Brinje-Grosuplje defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Brinje-Grosuplje attack 1.80 + Ilirija defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ilirija scores more
30%
level
25%
Brinje-Grosuplje scores more
45%

Brinje-Grosuplje at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Brinje-Grosuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
N. Jovicevic
48'
V. Skrbin
78'
N. Zrnec
Ilirija
Brinje-Grosuplje
D. Karapetrovič
Manager: D. Karapetrovič
Goran Markovic
Manager: Goran Markovic

Match Recap: Ilirija vs Brinje-Grosuplje

Brinje-Grosuplje beat Ilirija 3-0 in 2. SNL on August 16, 2025.

Goals: N. Jovicevic (11'), V. Skrbin (48'), N. Zrnec (78').

The match was played at Športni park Ilirija in Ljubljana.