Ilirija 2–2 Brežice: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Ilirija

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Brežice

M. Đajič 58' (pen)

D. Djermanovič 20'

S. Lesjak 39'

D. Brkić 19'

8/8/2021

2. SNL · Round 2Športni park Ilirija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Ilirija47%

×Draw25%

Brežice28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IlirijaExpected goals in this matchBrežice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.15

Ilirija

1.59

Brežice

1.15

Ilirija creates 38% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 37 away

1.32

creates per match

0.86

1.43

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Ilirija

1.32

Brežice

0.86

allows per match

Ilirija

1.43

Brežice

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ilirija+0.00on par

Brežice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilirija ↓

Brežice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ilirija or draw

72%

Ilirija or Brežice

75%

Draw or Brežice

53%

Winning margin

Ilirija wins by 2+

24%

Brežice wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ilirija 1+ goals

80%

Ilirija 2+ goals

47%

Ilirija 3+ goals

21%

Brežice 1+ goals

68%

Brežice 2+ goals

32%

Brežice 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ilirija (draw refunded)

63%

Brežice (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilirija at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

Brežice away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilirija attack 1.32 + Brežice defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.59

Brežice attack 0.86 + Ilirija defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ilirija scores more

47%

level

25%

Brežice scores more

28%

Ilirija at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ilirija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

20'

33'

39'

46'

A. Jašaragič← A. Zagorec

46'

L. Piskule← S. Kuzmic

46'

B. Perišić← F. Sivonjić

58'

M. ĐajičPenalty

67'

G. Petrić← D. Djermanovič

69'

M. Mrvič← R. Gorenc

84'

N. Pušnik← L. Gajič

84'

M. Golob← M. Đajič

Ilirija

Brežice

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Djermanov

▼

Gajič

⚽

▼

Đajič

Manager: D. Balutto

46'▲A. Jašaragič←▼A. Zagorec

46'▲L. Piskule←▼S. Kuzmic

67'▲G. Petrić←▼D. Djermanovič

84'▲N. Pušnik←▼L. Gajič

84'▲M. Golob←▼M. Đajič

Ilirija substitutes

JašaragičPiskulePetrićPušnikGolobKepicKisovec

Manager: Ž. Mitraković

33'▲N. Marić←▼D. Brkić

46'▲B. Perišić←▼F. Sivonjić

69'▲M. Mrvič←▼R. Gorenc

Brežice substitutes

MarićPerišićMrvičBajsVujčićGečGoričar